40% Risk of Reversion to Conflict?

I’m in Jaffna today for consultations around the World Bank’s SCD study, and I am reminded of a groundbreaking paper by Paul Collier et al. It was a unique joint report by the World Bank and UN Peace Keeping Operations . In it, the author’s argue that country’s that have faced a conflict in the past are susceptible to reverting to conflict again.

Post-conflict societies face two distinctive challenges: economic recovery and risk reduction. Aid and policy reforms have been found to be highly effective in economic recovery. In this paper we concentrate on the other challenge, risk reduction. The post- conflict peace is typically fragile: the typical country faces around a 40% risk of reversion to conflict during the first decade of peace. As a result, nearly half of all civil wars are due to post-conflict relapses. Both external actors and the post-conflict government therefore rightly give priority to reducing the risk of conflict.

The authors compare political, economic and military aspects of the post-conflict situation to address the problem of high risk, based on a statistical analysis of 74 post- conflict experiences from around the world. Well worth a read… http://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/6250412.pdf

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